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August 28, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Tropical Storm Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane when it nears western Cuba later  today. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds becoming increasingly likely for portions of Florida. Idalia is currently about 90 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, moving north at 8 MPH with 65 MPH maximum sustained winds. A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight, over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Disturbance 2. Hurricane Franklin is a major hurricane located about 505 miles southwest of Bermuda moving north-northwest at 8 MPH with maximum sustained winds at 115 MPH. A gradual turn toward the north and north-northeast with a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon. 

Disturbance 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

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