June 17, 2024

Tropical Disturbances Today

1. A broad area of low pressure is forming over the Bay of Campeche. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional gradual development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form by midweek while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles east of the Bahamas, is associated with a surface trough and an upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday. Formation chance through 48  hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

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