August 31, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

(from left to right)

Disturbance 1. Tropical Storm Idalia is located about 65 miles SE of Wilmington, North Carolina moving ENE at 20 MPH with 60 MPH maximum sustained winds. An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast to begin later today and continue through Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will move just offshore of the coast of North Carolina today. Idalia will then move eastward over the western Atlantic into the weekend. Little change in strength is expected today, but some gradual weakening could occur Friday and Saturday.

Disturbance 2. Hurricane Franklin is moving further away from Bermuda. Franklin is located about 200 miles NNE of Bermuda moving ENE at 15 MPH with 100 MPH maximum sustained winds. A general east-northeastward to northeastward motion should continue over the next several days. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert): A weak but well-defined area of low pressure is located several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This system has a short window for further development during the next day or so while it drifts northeastward or eastward before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 4. Tropical Storm Jose is located about 785 miles ESE of Bermuda. Jose is moving north at 5 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 40 MPH. Little change in strength is forecast over the next day or so, with the small system forecast to be absorbed by Franklin by the weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): An area of low pressure is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for  further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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