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August 30, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Idalia. Idalia is moving inland from the Florida Big Bend coast as a Category 3 hurricane and catastrophic storm surge and damaging hurricane force winds continue. Idalia is located about 10 miles SSE of Perry, Florida moving NNE at 18 MPH with 120 MPH maximum sustained winds. Idalia's center is forecast to move into southern Georgia later today. Although Idalia will weaken further now that the center is inland, it is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and near the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today. Idalia is forecast to be a tropical storm while moving near the coasts of northeastern South Carolina and North Carolina tonight and on Thursday. Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late today and Thursday.

Disturbance 2. Hurricane Franklin is located about 160 miles NW of Bermuda moving NE at 13 MPH with 105 MPH maximum sustained winds. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for  Bermuda. A gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today or tonight, with a slightly faster east-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Franklin is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda today.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert): A trough of low pressure (the remnants of Gert) is located several hundred miles to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear to be that favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts slowly northward or north-northeastward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 4. Tropical Depression Eleven is meandering over the central Atlantic and located about 805 miles ESE o Bermuda moving north at 2 MPH with maximum sustained winds at 35 MPH. The system is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple of days. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94): A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while the system initially moves west-northwestward and then turns northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

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