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October 28, 2022

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Eastern Caribbean – We'll wait and see

A broad area of low pressure is over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disturbance 2. Southwestern Atlantic – No threat to our area

A broad area of low pressure extends from near Bermuda southward over the western Atlantic for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for any development. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become even less favorable for development, and the low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal system. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.



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