May 31, 2022

Tropical Disturbances Today

A large and complex area of low pressure, near the Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Gulf of Mexico,  is expected to develop in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific.  

Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system could become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late this week.  Heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida  Keys by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 10% and formation chance through 5 days is at 60%.

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