October 03, 2025

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1.  Southwestern Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 2.  Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



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