Disturbance 1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94): A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week, and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that region. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
Disturbance 2. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Disturbance 3. Hurricane Gabrielle is no threat to our part of the world. Gabrielle is a Category 4 hurricane, currently about 305 miles ENE of Bermuda moving NE at 13 MPH with 140 MPH maximum sustained winds. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle will continue to move away from Bermuda today. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic Canada over the next few days. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days.
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