Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Disturbance 2. Hurricane Kirk is no threat to us but is strengthening and is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday. Kirk is located way out in the Atlantic about 1200 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Disturbance 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
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