Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91): A broad area of low pressure is located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Disturbance 2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure is over the central tropical Atlantic and continues to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression could form while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward at around 10 mph through the rest of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Disturbance 3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is expected to move very little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.