Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A large and disorganized area of low pressure is located over the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form in a few days while the system is over the southern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. The timetable for potential development has shifted later toward late week or this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Depression Joyce is no threat to our area and is likely to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate by Wednesday.

Disturbance 3. Tropical Storm Isaac is no threat to our area, slow weakening is expected during the next several days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today.

Disturbance 4. Tropical Depression Twelve is not likely a threat to our area. The Depression is near tropical storm strength and is expected to become a large and powerful Hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. It is moving toward the west near 8 mph, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast by Wednesday.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a few days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.