June 28, 2024

Tropical Disturbances Today

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. Development of this system is not expected today while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph. The disturbance is then expected to move westward over the Yucatan Peninsula and emerge over the Bay of Campeche late Saturday or early Sunday, at which point some development will be possible. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95): A low pressure system located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands is gradually becoming better defined. A tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form later today or on Saturday. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph and approach the Lesser Antilles by the end of the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is centered several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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