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November 16, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98): A broad area of low pressure is located over the west-central Caribbean Sea and has become a little better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.  Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Disturbance 2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States: A non-tropical area of low pressure between southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal boundary.  Development of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the next day or so while the low moves quickly northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

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