October 09, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a small area of low pressure over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 100 miles north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.  Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some additional development while the system moves slowly northward before the low merges with a frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A low-latitude tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

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