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October 30, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move westward during the next several days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development.  A tropical depression could form late this week when the system reaches the central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Disturbance 2. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL96): An area of low pressure is located a couple of hundred miles east of the northwestern Bahamas.  This system is moving into an area of strong upper-level winds and dry air, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical storm appear to be decreasing.  The low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward today and then turn northward and northeastward on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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