October 10, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Showers and thunderstorms have increased some, but remain disorganized, in association with an area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable, surface pressures have been falling near the system, and it has a short window to develop further over the next day or so. However, by Wednesday morning the system is forecast to merge with a developing frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast by the latter portion of this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

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