September 11, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Lee remains a major hurricane and is located about 340 miles north of the northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 7 MPH with 120 MPH maximum sustained winds. On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands,the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. It remains too soon to know any impacts along the U.S. East Coast late this week.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Margot is moving north over the open central subtropical Atlantic and is expected to become a hurricane tonight. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97): A weak area of low pressure is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development of this system is unlikely before it merges with a tropical wave to its east during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent. 

Disturbance 4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 

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