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August 26, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): An area of low pressure is  located near the Yucatan Channel. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while it moves generally northward over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Franklin is slowly strengthening as it moves ENE at 6 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 65 MPH. Franklin is currently located about 660 miles south of Bermuda. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A sharp turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a northward to north-northwestward motion over the western Atlantic through early next week.

Disturbance 3. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A broad area of low pressure is located about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7  days...medium...40 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of next week while the system moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 

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