Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Franklin is located 215 miles ENE of Grand Turk Island and 690 miles SSW of Bermuda. Movement is ENE at 6 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH. Franklin is forecast to strengthen this weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. 

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily): A trough of low pressure is located roughly 1000 miles east-northeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily). Environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for tropical cyclone formation, and the low is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the north central Atlantic in the next day or so.  Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 4. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of low pressure is located about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development this weekend, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.