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August 24, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure, originating along the East Pacific coast of Central America, is forecast to move into northwestern Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter into early next week, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly northward, entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Franklin  is forecast to strengthen as it moves north at  13 MPH. Franklin is currently located about 55 miles ENE of Grand Turk Island with maximum sustained winds of 50 MPH. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Franklin is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Emily): An area of low pressure is located more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda (the remnants of former Tropical Storm Emily). Upper-level winds are generally conducive for development today, and this system is likely to regenerate into a tropical storm over the next couple of days as the system moves northward over the subtropical central Atlantic. By this weekend, the system is anticipated to merge with a frontal boundary north of the Gulf Stream. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An area of low pressure is  located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite marginal environmental conditions, slow development is possible and a tropical  depression could form by early next week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

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