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September 22, 2022

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Fiona - No threat to our area

Hurricane Fiona is expected to bring hurricane conditions to Bermuda tonight through Friday morning and to affect portions of Atlantic Canada as a powerful cyclone late Friday an Saturday.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Gaston - No threat to our area

Tropical Storm Gaston is moving east-northeast and turn southeastern or southward as it moves near the Azores Friday.

Disturbance 3. Southeastern Caribbean Sea – Watch this one

We should monitor a tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that time.  The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disturbance 4. East Central Tropical Atlantic – Too soon to tell but not likely a threat to our area.

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic – No threat to our area

A tropical wave that has emerged over the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent and formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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