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September 12, 2021

Tropical Outlook Today

Disturbance 1. The low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche is still with us and expected to develop into a tropical depression later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of  northeastern Mexico.  Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coastal areas through the middle of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 90% and formation chance through 5 days is also at 90%. 

Disturbance 2. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is near 0% and formation chance through 5 days is at 50%. 

Disturbance 3. A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde is not expected to develop into a tropical depression while the system moves westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 20% and formation chance through 5 days is also at 20%. 

Disturbance 4. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic and is no threat to us. 

Disturbance 5. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. A tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 10% and formation chance through 5 days is at 60%. 



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