Tropical Weather Disturbances

Disturbance 1: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Cuba are associated with a tropical wave.  This system is expected to move west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida today and tonight, over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, across the central Gulf on Wednesday, and reach the northwestern Gulf on Thursday. Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development of this system once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20%; formation chance through 5 days is also low at 20%.

Disturbance 2: Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic.  By Friday and over the weekend, conditions are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20%; formation chance through 5 days is also low at 20%.

Disturbance 3: A weak low pressure area is located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized during the past several hours.  However, the system is expected to move inland over Texas tonight or Tuesday before  significant additional development can occur.  Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana during the next day or two. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20%; formation chance through 5 days is also low at 20%.