Disturbance 1. Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94): A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight. The system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic late this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
Disturbance 2. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Disturbance 3. Hurricane Gabrielle is no threat to our part of the world and is racing ENE across the North Atlantic, headed toward Spain. However, swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward, and Atlantic Canada over the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
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