Disturbance 1. East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Disturbance 2. Hurricane Gabrielle is no threat to our area. Gabrielle is located about 210 miles SE of Bermuda moving NNW at 10 MPH with 90 MPH maximum sustained winds. Gabrielle is strengthening and forecast to pass east of Bermuda tonight. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and are expected to continue through the early part this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Disturbance 3. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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