Tropical Disturbances Today

(Shown left to right below)

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Erin remains no threat to our area and is in the first stages of becoming post-tropical. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass south of Atlantic Canada today and tonight, and then race across the north Atlantic waters.

Disturbance 2. Near the Leeward Islands (AL90):  Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward, in between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:  A small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Azores has weakened overnight, and no development is expected while it drifts northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

Disturbance 4.  Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):  Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands have become less organized overnight.  While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday.  The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.