Disturbance 1. Hurricane Rafael is a category 3 hurricane and moving toward the west near 9 mph. A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to move over the central Gulf of Mexico for the next few days. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today. By tonight, a steady weakening trend is forecast and should continue through the weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Confidence remains high that Rafael will remain well south of our area and spare us from any direct impacts.
Disturbance 2. Near Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure extends from the central Caribbean Sea northeastward across Hispaniola and into the southwestern Atlantic. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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