Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Hurricane Rafael is located about 130 miles SSE of Havana, Cuba and moving NW at 14 MPH with 110 maximum sustained winds. A general northwestward motion is anticipated over the next day or so, followed by a gradual west-northwestward turn in the Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Rafael is expected to make landfall in western Cuba later today as a Category 3 hurricane and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Regardless of the exact track, increased rain chances, minor coastal flooding, and hazardous seas are the primary impacts that are likely to transpire this weekend and into Monday. The extent and timing of these impacts remains less certain but confidence is increasing that it will stay south of the northern Gulf Coast through the weekend.

Disturbance 2. A trough of low pressure is several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.  This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday.  Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.