Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Tropical Storm Rafael is located about 80 miles SSW of Montego Bay, Jamaica moving NW at 13 MPH with 60 MPH maximum sustained winds. A generally northwestward motion is anticipated over the next few days.  On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday. Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba. Rafael is forecast to be in the north-central Gulf Saturday. It is too soon to say exactly what impacts this system could have on our area as any potential impacts are still at least 4 to 5 days out and Rafael is expected to encounter a very unfavorable environment later this week and into the weekend. Rafael should continue to be monitored. 

Disturbance 2. An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days.  Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.