Disturbance 1. Tropical Storm Rafael is gradually weakening with maximum sustained winds now at 40 mph. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph. The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Disturbance 2. Near the Bahamas (AL98): A trough of low pressure is located less than a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to reach more unfavorable environmental conditions later today. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
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