October 01, 2024

Tropical Disturbances Today



Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or this weekend while it moves generally northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Kirk is no threat to our area. Kirk is located way out in the Atlantic moving WNW at 14 mph with 60 mph maximum sustained winds. Kirk is likely to strengthen into a hurricane by tonight and could become a major hurricane on Thursday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

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