Tropical Disturbances Today

Details of the systems are shown from left to right or west to east

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90): A low pressure system and weak frontal boundary is over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and remain disorganized.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching frontal system later today or on Saturday. Tropical cyclone development is unlikely. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave is located near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. The wave is forecast to move across Central America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 3. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99): Satellite images indicate that a gale-force low pressure system is located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure.  The low is forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this evening and overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical characteristics appears to be decreasing. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: An elongated trough of low pressure is over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.