Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwest Gulf of Mexico: A trough of low pressure is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, including near the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.  Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development by Friday and Saturday as a frontal boundary approaches the system. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly in association with a westward-moving tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea.  Significant development appears unlikely before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday.  Some development is possible late in the weekend into early next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 3. Northwestern Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is  located a few hundred miles east of North Carolina. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next couple of days while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States.  Once the low moves over cooler waters by late Saturday, further subtropical development is not expected. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 4. Central Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Strong upper-level winds are expected to limit development of this system during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By early next week, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development while the system moves west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad area of low pressure is over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.