Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located over the western Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance meanders towards the west-northwest. This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Joyce is no threat to our area and is likely to weaken during the next couple of days and and Joyce is expected to become a depression by early Monday and then a remnant low on Tuesday.

Disturbance 3. Hurricane Isaac is no threat to our area and continued weakening is expected over the next few days.  Isaac is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Monday.

Disturbance 4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this week while the system initially moves westward and then northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave is located near the coast of western Africa. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.