Tropical Disturbances Today

(shown left to right or west to east)

Disturbance 1. Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Disturbance 2. Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene is no threat to our area. Helene is currently located about 15 miles WSW of Louisville, Kentucky with maximum sustained winds of 25 mph. 

Disturbance 3. Hurricane Isaac continues to strengthen over the subtropical Atlantic as it moves northeast at 20 mph. Isaac is currently located about 785 miles west of the Azores with 105 mph maximum sustained winds. Little change in strength is expected through mid-day, followed by gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.  Isaac is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 4. Tropical Storm Joyce is currently located in the open Atlantic about 1165 miles east of sthe northern Leeward Islands moving northwest at 10 mph with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday.

Disturbance 5. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.