Tropical Disturbances Today

(shown left to right or west to east)

Disturbance 1. Western Caribbean: (POTENTIAL THREAT TO OUR AREA NEXT WEEK) An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, potentially entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 2. Tropical Storm Helene (NO THREAT TO OUR AREA) is currently located about 80 miles ENE of Atlanta. Helene is moving toward the north near 30 mph. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph. Continued weakening is expected, and Helene is expected to become a post-tropical low this afternoon or tonight.

Disturbance 3. Hurricane Isaac (NO THREAT) is located about 980 miles ENE of Bermuda moving east at 12 mph with 75 mph maximum sustained winds. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening by the end of this weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Disturbance 4. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98): (TOO SOON TO TELL) An area of low pressure is located midway in between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles and continues to become better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development and a tropical depression or storm could form today while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then forecast to slow down and turn north-northwestward by this weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Disturbance 5. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: (TOO SOON TO TELL) An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for slow development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.