Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A very broad area of low pressure is located over the western Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Disturbance 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96): Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda has not become better organized since yesterday. Although the low remains embedded in a very dry environment, a short-lived tropical depression cannot be ruled out if showers and thunderstorms become better organized while the system moves generally northward at 5 to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is expected to move westward during the next several days. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of the week while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.