Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Disturbance 2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure is located about 700 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions do not appear conducive for significant development of this system during the next couple of days while it drifts northwestward and then northward at about 5 mph over the central or western subtropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon): Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers and thunderstorms displaced away from the center of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon)  located over one thousand miles southwest of the Azores.  Significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of Africa on Sunday or Monday.  Gradual development of this system is possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.