September 13, 2024

Tropical Disturbances Today



Disturbance 1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine is expected to dissipate later today.

Disturbance 2. Offshore the Southeastern U.S.: A non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline this weekend. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week while the system moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 3. Near the Northern Leeward Islands (AL94): Satellite-derived wind data from several hours ago indicate that a small area of low pressure located less than one hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has degenerated into a surface trough. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 4. Tropical Depression Seven could become a tropical storm today. The system is currently about 955 miles WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 14 MPH with maximum sustained winds of 35 MPH. A turn toward the west is forecast by tonight, with the system gradually slowing down through the weekend. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

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