Tropical Disturbances Today

See the big picture of tropical disturbances today below. 

Details of the systems are shown from left to right or west to east

Disturbance 1.  Hurricane Francine is currently located about 195 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana moving northeast at 12 MPH with 90 MPH maximum sustained winds. A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans. Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across areas that include southeastern Louisiana. A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight. 

Disturbance 2. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic: In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development is possible during the early part of next week as the system meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 3. East of the Leeward Islands: A small but well-defined area of low pressure is located several hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands. The proximity of dry air near the system is expected to limit additional development over the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 4. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): An elongated area of low pressure is located over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight development during the next day or two while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.  The disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances for development. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance 5. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):  Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical Atlantic.  Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.