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November 15, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression could still form by the weekend while the system begins moving northeastward across the western and central portions of the Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48  hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Disturbance 2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop near southern Florida along a surface trough over the next day or so. This system is then forecast to move northeastward near the Bahamas and offshore of the east coast of the U.S. late this week and over the weekend.  Development into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and  formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

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