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July 31, 2023

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96): An area of low pressure is  located about 700 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The system does not currently have a well-defined center of circulation.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be sufficiently favorable for development over the next few days, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or so.  The system is expected to move northwestward at 10 to 15 mph today, and then turn northward over the central subtropical Atlantic by late tonight or Tuesday. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent and formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Disturbance 2. Off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coast (AL97): An area of low pressure is located offshore of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast.  The system appears to be acquiring non-tropical characteristics as it begins to merge with a frontal boundary, and its chances of becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.  Regardless, the low is expected to begin producing gale-force winds today while it moves quickly toward the east-northeast at about 30 mph. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent and formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

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