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November 04, 2022

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Tropical Depression Lisa is forecast to become nearly stationary and meander on Saturday and Saturday night. Slight strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that, Lisa is forecast to weaken and to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Sunday.

Disturbance 2. A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic during the next day or two. Environmental conditions could support additional gradual development early next week and a subtropical or tropical depression could form while the disturbance moves generally  northwestward or westward over the southwestern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Disturbance 3. A weak non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Any tropical or subtropical development of this disturbance should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves little through today and then turns westward over the weekend. The system is forecast to interact with a larger low pressure area developing to its southwest and will encounter stronger upper level winds on Saturday, so further development is not anticipated beyond that time. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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