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August 29, 2022

Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:

A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.  Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 2. Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure is over the central tropical Atlantic and some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent and formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disturbance 3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:

A small low pressure system is located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this evening or early Tuesday.  Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.



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