Tropical Disturbances Today

Disturbance 1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea: A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.  Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Disturbance 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure is located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. The system currently lacks organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week while moving toward the west and then west-northwest at around 10 mph, toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent and formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Disturbance 3. Central Atlantic: A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda is expected to have significant development while it meanders over the central Atlantic during the next few days, and the low is likely to dissipate by midweek. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Disturbance 4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa Monday or Monday night. Some gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent and formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.