Disturbance 1. A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. This system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 80% and formation chance through 5 days is also at 80%.
Disturbance 2. A weak surface trough is located about 200 miles east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has diminished. Development of this system is not expected. Formation chance through 48 hours is near 0% and formation chance through 5 days is also near 0%.