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September 16, 2021

Tropical Outlook Today

NOAA advises that the Atlantic hurricane season shows no signs of slowing

Disturbance 1. Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas is nearly stationary near Marsh Island along the central Louisiana Gulf Coast. It is expected to drift slowly north over the next couple of days and produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the Gulf Coast Friday, with isolated storm totals of 12 inches possible. Flash Flood Watches are in effect along the central Gulf Coast from portions of southeast Louisiana, across southern Mississippi and Alabama, to the Florida Panhandle.

Disturbance 2. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of the Outer Banks of North Carolina is likely to form into a tropical depression during the next day or two while the system moves northward to north-northeastward off the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 70% and formation chance through 5 days is at 70%. 

Disturbance 3. A tropical wave located a little more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is likely to form into a tropical depression late this week or this weekend.  This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 70% and formation chance through 5 days is at 80%.

Disturbance 4. Another tropical wave is forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 10% and formation chance through 5 days is at 20%. 



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