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September 15, 2021

Tropical Outlook Today

Disturbance 1. Tropical Depression Nicholas is moving east at 3 mph with maximum sustained winds at 30 mph. It is expected to move even slower (or stall) on Thursday, steadily weaken, and dissipate Thursday night or Friday. However, tropical moisture will linger and an additional 3 to 6 inches of rain is expected across the Gulf coast through Friday with isolated storm totals of 10 inches possible.

Disturbance 2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas is expected to develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast.  Formation chance through 48 hours is at 60% and formation chance through 5 days is at 70%. 

Disturbance 3. WATCH OUT FOR THIS ONE A low pressure area a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde is likely to form into a tropical depression within the next couple of days and continue to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 80% and formation chance through 5 days is at 90%. 

Disturbance 4. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is near 0% and formation chance through 5 days is at 20%. 



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