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September 10, 2021

Tropical Outlook Today

Disturbance 1. KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD US AND CHANCE OF FORMATION HAS INCREASED FROM 30% TO 70%. A tropical wave over Honduras, the western Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Yucatan peninsula is likely to form into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico coast. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 40% and formation chance through 5 days is at 70%. 

Disturbance 2. Hurricane Larry is no threat to us.

Disturbance 3. A strong tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa by tonight. A tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. Formation chance through 48 hours is at 50% and formation chance through 5 days is at 70%. 



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