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June 28, 2021

Tropical Outlook Today

Disturbance 1. A well-defined low pressure system is located about 190 miles east-southeast of Hilton Head Island, South Carolina, and any additional increase in organization would result in the issuance of advisories for a tropical depression or tropical storm later this morning or afternoon.  The low is forecast to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and the system should reach the coast of southern South Carolina or Georgia by this evening.  If advisories are initiated, then tropical storm warnings could be required for a portion of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts with short notice. Formation chance through 48 hours is high at 70% and formation chance through 5 days is also high at 70%. 

Disturbance 2. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Some slow development is possible through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser Antilles Wednesday night. Formation chance through 48 hours is low at 20% and formation chance through 5 days is medium at 40%. 

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